Welcome back to The Red Letter.
There may be no more adaptable politician in Washington than JD Vance.
In just a few years, he’s gone from Never Trump author to Trump heir apparent to the guy defending what Republicans are already calling the “Vance Peace Deal.”
Good luck with that.
For years, Vance built his political brand attacking forever wars, nation-building fantasies and Washington’s habit of promising that this time things would be different.
Now he’s on television asking Americans to trust a deal with Iran.
By one count, the Trump administration was on the verge of peace at least 38 times before finally announcing an agreement.
Maybe 39th’s the charm.
The White House insists this is a major victory. But listen carefully to what they’ve actually secured.
Iran promises not to pursue a nuclear weapon.
Iran promises not to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
That’s basically it.
Oh, and after 60 days, Iran can begin charging ships for passage through a waterway that was previously free.
In return, Iran gets sanctions relief, reconstruction money and as much as $300 billion in new investment and infrastructure funding—depending on which administration official you ask.
Vance appeared to acknowledge substantial reconstruction funding during an interview with CBS News.
Trump promptly jumped on Truth Social to deny it.
“The story that the U.S. is paying Iran 300 million [sic] Dollars is Fake News, put out by the Dumocrats!!!”
So to recap: the vice president says one thing, the president says another, and we’re all supposed to trust that Iran will uphold its end of the bargain.
Clear as mud.
Everything about this deal comes with an asterisk.
Iran gets benefits if it complies. Shipping stays open if Iran complies. Regional stability improves if Iran complies.
The problem, of course, is that every Iran deal is built on the assumption that Iran will comply.
That’s not exactly a reassuring foundation.
And despite what administration officials keep saying, the war didn’t suddenly end because everyone woke up and decided to be friends.
The pressure to find an off-ramp was becoming enormous.
Oil markets were rattled. Americans were souring on another Middle East conflict. Trump campaigned on ending wars, not owning one. The economy needed this to end.
So did the White House.
What makes this politically fascinating is what happens next.
Trump has already joked about blaming Vance if the deal blows up.
Normally I’d dismiss that as Trump being Trump. But Trump jokes about things that are already rattling around in his head.
Meanwhile, some Republicans who don’t want to attack Trump directly have already started attaching Vance’s name to the agreement.
Which means the vice president now owns something attached to a war he didn’t initiate and probably doesn’t fully control.
If the deal holds (unlikely), Vance gets to say he helped prevent another forever war.
If it collapses, if Iran cheats, if shipping through Hormuz becomes a problem again, if the administration ends up bombing Iran six months from now, Republicans will suddenly discover that this wasn’t Trump’s deal at all.
It was JD’s.
And the funniest part is that the America First movement spent years arguing that these kinds of arrangements never work.
Now one of its leading voices is responsible for convincing everyone that this one will.
Thank you Cat: Poli-Psych, Abi Baker, Noble Blend, PJ Schuster, It’s Time 🇺🇦, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.
