Welcome back to The Red Letter.
I’m heading over to Mamdani’s election-night headquarters — what I expect will soon become a crowded Brooklyn ballroom pulsing with energy, campaign pins, and the kind of hopeful noise you only hear when everyone knows they’re about to go home winners.
Tonight, I’ll be offering live analysis, commentary and reporting for the Associated Press’s livestream of election night across America on YouTube. You can watch here. I’ll also be offering live commentary on Instagram, TikTok, and, of course, right here at The Red Letter.
For new readers who don’t know: before I was a foreign correspondent and White House corresponent, I covered City Hall as a beat reporter during the final years of the Bloomberg administration and the early, chaotic early days of Bill de Blasio. I’ve seen the job up close — the machinery, the egos, the power struggles — so I have a pretty good understanding of what drives this city, what’s possible, and what’s not.
But
, who frequently writes for New York Magazine, remains one of the most plugged-in reporters on the beat. He called a dramatic Mamdani upset on this show back in June, as always questioning the viability of mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo’s “rose garden” campaign and his sense of entitlement.How We Got Here
Just a year ago, Mamdani was polling at zero percent. He was an afterthought in a race dominated by Andrew Cuomo’s money and name recognition. But Mamdani ran what Barkan called “a once-in-a-generation campaign”: social-media-savvy, message-disciplined, and grounded in one word — affordability. Cuomo, meanwhile, ran what Ross described as “the worst front-running campaign I’ve ever witnessed.” He had no apology, no ground game, and no sense of how out-of-step he’d become with the city he once governed.
Let’s not forget how big of a primary upset this was: Cuomo was the polling leader for months. The relatively unknown Mamdani was at zero in the polls and then went on to beat him in the primary by a whopping 13 points. In many ways, the electricity of Mamdani’s campaign suggests that institutional money and legacy endorsements might be a thing of the past. And if he wins more than 50 percent of the vote, his brand of Democratic socialism may not be easily dismissed by party leaders as fringe. There will be real implications for a party that’s long struggled to be a big tent.
“If he wins by a lot, right, he comes into the mandate, he gets over 50%. That’s where the implications will be great in terms of important for the National Party, for the Democratic establishment,” Barkan said. “They can’t hide from him. I mean, you can say it’s New York City, it’s not America, and that is true. But I think it’s important to look at New York the way you look at Virginia, for example, because New York City basically has the population of Virginia.”
The Democratic Divide
Tonight isn’t just a referendum on Cuomo, it’s a stress test for the Democratic Party itself. As Barkan put it, the gap between progressives and centrists has never been wider. Two million-plus people are expected to vote in this general election. If Mamdani wins tonight, this won’t just be a fraction of Democrats, it could be seen as a repudiation of the Democratic establishment. Party leaders like Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have gone quiet, while younger voters and organizers are openly challenging the machine.
Mamdani’s rise mirrors the populist revolt that once fueled President Trump, disillusionment with party elites and a hunger for authenticity.
“There was a Republican electorate in 2016 that was very dissatisfied with the leaders of their party. They chose a disruptor,” Barkan said. “That’s what he did like Trump in that election, beat the Democratic establishment.”
“Now trump remade the Republican establishment as the president,” he said. “If Mamdani can do it as a mayor, that’s a much bigger question.”
If (When) Mamdani Wins
A victory tonight — especially one clearing 50 percent — would mark what Barkan called “a realignment election.” But it would also set Mamdani up for the fights of his life inside City Hall and with Washington. His promises like free buses, universal child care, city-run grocery stores, tax increases and a rent freeze will test how far a self-proclaimed socialist can go in a city dependent on a strong relationship with the governor, state legislature and Washington.
He’ll need cooperation from Governor Kathy Hochul, who may find common ground on childcare and affordability as she runs for reelection and will need a boost from Mamdani’s coalition of progressives. But he’ll face open hostility from President Trump, who’s already threatened to withhold federal funds and send ICE into New York. As Ross reminded me, “That’s way worse than what [former Mayor Bill] de Blasio dealt with.”
Still, Mamdani has one advantage no spreadsheet can capture: people power. And tonight, I’m sure it will be humming through this ballroom.
Thank you to everyone who joined my live video tonight — and for following along as this historic race unfolds. I’ll be back soon with more live updates from the floor.
