Welcome back to The Red Letter.
Over the weekend, the Trump administration executed a stunning military operation in Venezuela — capturing Nicolás Maduro and bringing him to the United States. Tactically, it was a success. Strategically, the questions are only beginning.
To make sense of what happens next, I spoke with Brett Bruen, a former U.S. diplomat who served in Venezuela and now runs the Global Situation Room.
Bruen’s warning was blunt: taking a country is easy; stabilizing it is not.
The administration’s public line — that the U.S. can pressure Maduro’s successor into cooperation on drug trafficking, oil access, and regional security — ignores a basic reality of Venezuela: there is no single center of power. The regime is a constellation of rival actors, from political operatives to military leaders to drug traffickers, all jockeying for control. Removing the figurehead doesn’t dissolve the system.
Bruen also flagged what he sees as a dangerous imbalance: meticulous military planning paired with almost no visible political plan. He drew uncomfortable parallels to Iraq and Afghanistan, where initial victories gave way to long-term instability, insurgency, and regional blowback. A U.S. intervention in Venezuela could run into a the same sort of protracted, irregular resistance phase because Venezuela’s terrain, borders, and network of irregular actors could sustain asymmetrical conflict that makes occupation or stabilization costly and prolonged.
Perhaps most striking was his assessment of the broader fallout. Trump’s rhetoric — threatening not just Venezuela but Colombia, Cuba, even Greenland — risks pushing U.S. allies away and inviting rivals like China and Russia deeper into the Western Hemisphere.
Yes, Maduro was a brutal ruler. Yes, his removal matters.
But Bruen’s message was clear: without a serious political and humanitarian strategy, this “win” could open a far bigger and more dangerous chapter for Venezuela and for the U.S.
You can watch the full conversation above.
Thank you P. J. Schuster, john king (MY HUMBLE OPINION), Linda Aldrich, Shirley Figueroa, GW B, and many others for tuning into my live video with Brett Bruen! Join me for my next live video in the app.
