They All Know It’s a Disaster. They’re Voting for It Anyway.

Obamacare Moment, GOP Edition

Welcome back to The Red Letter.

The “Big Beautiful Bill” has long been described to me by Republican sources as “Too Big to Fail.” That’s how they explain why it’s destined to pass. It’s not just a bill — it’s President Trump’s entire legislative agenda wrapped into one. The only major piece of legislation this Congress will pass. And, some argue, the very reason many of these Republicans were elected in the first place.

It’s border policy. It’s defense spending. It’s tax cuts. It’s health care. Trump is handling everything else unilaterally — even the real wars and the trade wars — so this bill is it.

But behind closed doors, there’s real anxiety. Especially around the Medicaid cuts. They know it could come back to bite them in the midterms.

“The Democrats are rooting for us to f**k ourselves on Medicaid,” one Senate Republican source told me.

Another Republican called it “our Obamacare moment.” They were referring to the backlash Democrats faced after passing the Affordable Care Act in 2010 — a wipeout that helped spawn the Tea Party movement. The irony, of course, is that Obamacare turned out to be popular. I used it myself to buy health insurance now that I’m an independent journalist and a small business owner.

“They’ve been persuaded that the worst harms have been mitigated,” the Senate source said. But at this point, it’s basically: “Everyone hold hands and jump.”

Still, most people I talk to are shocked by how fast Republicans got this bill together. But as with everything in Washington, the devil is in the details — and that’s exactly what I unpack with Congressman Jake Auchincloss, a rising star in the Democratic party from Massachusetts.

And I’ll be honest: I couldn’t help but feel a little cynical when I read in Playbook this morning that Protect Our Care — a major Democratic health care advocacy group — is planning to run a seven-figure ad blitz after the bill passes. Targeting 10 vulnerable House Republicans.

So I asked Auchincloss point blank: Why didn’t Democrats launch those ads before the vote? Do they secretly want these Republicans to walk the plank?

This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity by Luke Radel. To listen to the full conversation, follow The Tara Palmeri Show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Tara Palmeri: When you first read this 940-page bill – and I'm assuming you did read it, although you can tell me if you didn't – what was your honest, unfiltered reaction?

Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-MA): It's the single worst piece of legislation I have ever voted on in Congress. It will explode the national debt by $3 trillion. It'll take away health care from 10 million people and raise health insurance premiums for tens of millions more. And it will do both those things in service of giving tax cuts to people who don't need tax cuts.

So what would you call the bill if you could call it something in two words?

Can I swear on this podcast?

Sure, but keep it light.

I'm joking. What I call it is “Medicaid Cuts” because that is where Democrats need to be laser-focused for the next 18 months. Of the top issues that the American public really care about, that they walk into the ballot box thinking about, healthcare is the one on which Democrats have a trust surplus with voters. And that's because for 15 years we've been battling to expand coverage. The new frontier is now to lower costs for health care. Well, this bill is going to do the exact opposite…

I’m now a new small business owner. I just stepped out as an independent journalist. I signed up for health care through the Obamacare Market… I had to promise I wouldn't get pregnant or use any psychological services, which is kind of insane when you think about it as a 37-year-old woman… How will I be impacted?

It's like buying auto insurance and having to promise you won't get into an accident, right? You're like: “Well, why am I buying it then?” Let me say two things… first of all, to your direct question: “How does this affect someone like you?” The short answer is it's gonna raise your premiums, and here's why: When you take people off of Medicaid, you don't stop them from getting sick, right? … Candidly, Tara, here's where Democrats have more work to do also because if we go back out there in 2028, and if our healthcare message is simply a return to the status quo of Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance, that is going to be a very underwhelming message because people hate the healthcare system as it exists today. And while Democrats have done a lot of work to make it better, we cannot rest on our laurels, nor can we simply say to somebody like you, an entrepreneur–

Yeah, that's true.

–trying to make their way and take a lot of risk, that now you also have to take more risk in your health insurance sector as well. We have to lean into lowering healthcare costs… simply saying, “We're gonna subsidize the ACA more,” that's not good enough.

I've definitely thought about this, but I'm also looking at Democrats right now and I just keep thinking to myself, they're not really fighting back against this bill... Do Democrats actually want Republicans to vote on this bill? Do they want them to take these hard party votes so they can win in 2026? And that is the cynic in me… but part of me feels like it rings true.

🔓 Keep reading to hear how Rep. Auchincloss responds to my toughest question yet: do Democrats secretly want this bill to pass for political gain?