James Carville Thinks the Democrats Finally Stopped Losing

The veteran strategist says the crisis has passed and he's suddenly optimistic about Chuck Schumer, the shutdown, and the party’s will to win.

Welcome back to The Red Letter.

James Carville is chipper. That’s not a word I usually use to describe Washington’s famously biting strategist. But when I caught up with him this week, he was practically giddy, convinced that Democrats, for once, are holding the winning hand in this shutdown showdown and it will take onward to the special and midterm elections. Mainly because they’ve been so beaten down, and they have no power in this shutdown fight, so how can they really be blamed?

“The Democrats have almost been a beneficiary of the negative observations made of them since last year,” Carville told me on The Tara Palmeri Show, which you can listen to on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“I’m chipper because I can see things are starting to line up in a little bit of a different direction.”

For decades, Carville has been diagnosing the Democrats’ neuroses, scolding their weaknesses, and reminding them what their real job is: to win. And in this interview, he says something that might surprise you: they’re finally out of the wilderness and the party’s no longer on the edge of a nervous breakdown.

But he warns Chuck Schumer: “Just the fact that you have a hand and you should win it doesn’t mean that you do. A lot of times, you fumble, you throw the ball away. But if we play it pretty down the middle here, I think we’re going to win this thing.”

He’s optimistic about the upcoming elections in Virginia and New Jersey and he’s even willing to bet money on it. Despite Zohran Mamdani’s insurgency in New York, he argues center-left politicians will continue to define the party’s direction. He’s long said he hasn’t seen an inspiring Democratic candidate since Barack Obama’s re-election in 2012, but now he can rattle off half a dozen names he believes show promise.

He also weighs in on whether Charlie Kirk’s murder will motivate the GOP base in the midterms, and he doesn’t hold back on Kamala Harris’ book tour or David Hogg, who, he says, has made “one bad mistake after another.”

Below is my full conversation with Carville — unfiltered, unsparing, and at times surprisingly hopeful. It has been condensed and edited for clarity by

Abi Baker

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Tara Palmeri: You’ve always found a way to turn dysfunction into opportunity. How do you think the Democrats are handling the shutdown?

James Carville: Well, actually pretty good. I don’t know how you can have a better hand than they have, where 30 to 46 percent people blame the Republicans and 72 percent want the subsidies extended. So they have a pretty good hand, and they’re playing it pretty good for now. I don’t think they’re going to lose this.

So it’s finally a win for Schumer.

He’s got a little bit of a tough goal here, but I think he’ll hold them together. Just the fact that you have a hand and you should win it doesn’t mean that you do. A lot of times, you fumble, you throw the ball away. But if we play it pretty down the middle here, I think we’re going to win this thing.

Democrats have turned the shutdown into a referendum on healthcare. Do you think that was a smart move?

Understand that for the past nine months, Democrats have had no power, and the Republicans are getting everything they want. They’re running a rough shod at everything. The Democratic Party is pathetic. It’s weak. It’s old. It’s urban. It’s constipated. It’s confused. And then the next day, Republicans say, ‘No, but Democrats are responsible for the whole government shutting down.’ Well, the voters are going to look at that and say, ‘Well, if they can’t do anything, how can they shut the government down?’ The Democrats have almost been a beneficiary of the negative observations made of them since last year.

Do you think the shutdown will have any impact on the special elections coming up in Virginia and New Jersey?

It may. I mean, the Virginia thing is, you know, this is real, this is not something abstract to people, particularly people living in Northern Virginia, but to some extent, living in Hampton Roads, Tidewater, you know, a lot of places. It’s real.

Cruising for a big win in Virginia, I think the Democrats still are, but when you’re in that kind of position, you just want to get to election day and get it over with.

You’re so chipper today, James. I got you at a good time.

Well, I’m chipper because I can see things are starting to line up in a little bit of a different direction. Yeah, I think that we’ll have a good night, Virginia.

You mentioned a catastrophe that has flipped the switch, a moment that changed the tide for Democrats. What were you talking about?

The image of the party is the lowest of any political party in the history of polling. I think that there was an inflection point where Democrats could have just gotten so despondent that it would have caused real damage. For now, I think that crisis has passed. They seem to be pretty unified.

But the reason that people don’t like the Democratic Party is the reason I don’t like it, because it lost. People don’t like it when their party loses. They belong to a political party for a single reason, and that is to win the election. We’re finally starting to realize that. That our purpose is not to stimulate debate, not to form the future, not to do anything, it’s to win the next election that’s coming up. That’s the most important thing.

I think what the Democrats might be missing right now is the cult of personality that the Republicans have in Trump. You don’t really have a unifying person behind the Democratic movement. You haven’t had an inspiring candidate, as you’ve said, since 2012. I mean, is there anyone out there that you think could be that inspiring?

Five or six people. One of the things that I think that actually somewhat nourished the Democrats’ benefit is that people think that we’re inarticulate, that we’re urban, that we’re old. And when they see the potential that we have in this party right now… I know everybody wants names, and if I give names and somebody says you forgot them, but you know, and we all know, any of these governors that are out there, you’ve got [Senator Raphael] Warnock or [Senator Ruben] Gallego.

What do you make of Zohran Mamdani and his rise?

First of all, it is a big tent party. Secondly, he’s actually running on what he’s talking about, which is what voters are talking about. He’s talking about the cost of living. Now, all of the other Palestine stuff, that’s not what he’s running on. It’s not what he’s talking about. Look, the guy is 32 or 33 years old; he said stupid things in his 20s. Well, everybody says stupid shit in their 20s.

A lot of Republicans I talk to are terrified of Gavin Newsom. Why do you think that is?

[Governor Gavin] Newsom is an effective politician, and he jumps, he’s taken opportunities as they come, and he’s setting himself out as the kind of face of the response to [President Donald] Trump. A lot of Democrats like that, to be honest with you, and he’s pretty good at it. But when you run for president, it’s going to take a little bit more than that.

Republicans have brought up to me a number of times and this idea about Charlie Kirk’s murder and how it will motivate the Republican base. As we know, midterm elections are base elections. It’s something that neither party has really experienced in a really long time.

Are you concerned that midterm voters, who maybe aren’t happy with Trump, but are angry at the left, will come out to vote? After all, the midterms are basically a battle with the couch.

Well, I’ll try to be polite. I’m skeptical of that argument. Thousands of people in November are going to be motivated by the tragic murder of a guy, I’m skeptical.

But look, anything that comes up, they cling to it because that’s what you do when you lose in every election around the country by about 15 points. I mean, these guys can read the election terms just like I do. I’m not the only person who follows these special elections. They know it, they read it. They say ‘the shutdown is gonna save us, or Charlie Kirk’s murder is going to save us, or the AG candidate in Virginia is going to save us.’ I mean, they’re looking for apricot pits out there to cure themselves.

Do you think the Epstein story will stick and motivate people to vote in the midterms?

I think it’s sick, I think it’ll motivate people to come out. Yes, and to the extent that the Epstein story is a story of power. Remember, the public looks at this and says, This is what I always thought. Here are these powerful people taking advantage of these young women, getting a sweetheart deal where they don’t even go to jail.

This is not a sex story. This is a power story.

I also think it’s a class story. And that’s why it unifies the uniparty, because that’s what captivated the MAGA base.

I’m serious here. It’s more, a sex story is boring. A power story is confirming.

Call me a skeptic, but I don’t think the DOJ is gonna hand over the files.

Probably not, but you can make them; if they don’t make them pay for it, why won’t you? I mean, it’s another example of power being protected. The Department of Justice is not there to protect you. It’s not there to protect these women. It’s not there to protect victims of sexual molestation. It’s there to protect power and remind people of that. And they will believe it. That’s an easy sell. That’s the easiest sell in the world.

Let’s talk about David Hogg. He started this super PAC, Leaders We Deserve, and he launched it alongside of his role as DNC vice chair. He vowed to take on incumbents as a member of the party to try to get rid of a culture of seniority. This was obviously extremely controversial at the time. He gave $300,000 to Zohran Mamdani. He gave $150,000 to Deja Fox, who lost by 40 points with just 22% of the vote. They invested another $5,000 into Irene Shin’s campaign for Congress in Virginia. She lost by 45 points. And they have been spending a ton of money on digital ads, around $1.1 million. $2.5 million on consultants. What do you think about this?

You cannot be an official of the Democratic Party and run against the people that you are supposed to represent and protect. The whole premise is wrong. He’s against the consultant class? And he fought a consultant class that he hired? So whatever he can self-correct here, but this guy has made one bad mistake after another. I mean, he’s not had a good 2025 to say the least.

I see it as a precursor for Hogg to run for election.

Well, where’s he gonna run and what’s he gonna win? I have no idea. His candidates are not doing very well. You’ve got to understand, these people are not popular in the Democratic Party, and they don’t understand that. They actually think that they’re popular. David Hogg thinks he’s popular among Virginia Democrats. He is no such thing.

(Hogg declined to comment.)

James knows all of the secrets of the swamp.

The swamp is a place of many secrets... generally, at the bottom of the swamp is one big giant pile of cash.