If Texas Is a White Whale, Does Jasmine Crockett Change Anything?

Every cycle Democrats pour $100 million into Texas without a win. The question isn’t whether Jasmine Crockett is too progressive — it’s whether her candidacy matters in a state they still can’t crack.

Welcome back to The Red Letter.

Texas is the Democrats’ white whale. Every cycle, the party pours another $100 million into the state, convinced that this is the year the 30-year streak of statewide losses comes to an end. And every cycle, they fall just short — Beto, Allred, the list goes on.

But this week, the race was jolted by the entrance of Rep. Jasmine Crockett. She’s sharp-tongued, wildly charismatic, unapologetically progressive, and the kind of communicator who can dominate a news cycle with a single clap-back. But her move has left Democratic insiders asking a very uncomfortable question: Does Crockett expand the map or hand the seat to Republicans?

To unpack this, I called someone who has no patience for party delusion, Democratic strategist Nomiki Konst, to have a candidate conversation on The Tara Palmeri Show.

Texas is a mirage, because Democrats treat it like one.

Konst didn’t sugarcoat it. For her, the problem isn’t Crockett, it’s the party’s entire approach to Texas.

Democrats have spent decades treating Texas like a quick-fix statewide prize while failing to invest in the one thing Republicans excel at: year-round organizing.

“We learned after Obama left that the Democrats had lost 1,200 seats across the country,” Konst told me. “We made it a national party rather than continuing to invest in state parties and subgroups like the Young Democrats…We don’t do that anymore. And we’re paying the consequences.”

Money floods into flashy Senate races not into school boards, county parties, or the kind of basic groundwork that prevents catastrophic redistricting. Crockett herself is a byproduct of that vacuum: a national figure with real grassroots appeal, stepping into a state where the party’s own foundation remains thin.

The Republican Meltdown: Why Democrats smell opportunity

If this were a normal year, Crockett’s entry might be less alarming. But 2025 isn’t normal.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued MAGA darling, is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country, impeached, indicted, getting divorced on what his wife calls “Biblical terms” and still somehow competitive. Early polling showed Paxton beating Sen. John Cornyn by 18 points in a primary 18. Now that lead has evaporated. It’s a statistical tie.

And here’s the kicker: A generic Democrat, like Allred, actually beat Paxton, according to that same April SLF poll that showed Paxton trouncing Cornyn in the primaries. But Crockett isn’t a generic Democrat, for better or for worse.

Democrats can almost taste Texas barbecue. Consider that:

• Donald Trump is nine points underwater in Texas over frustrations with the economy.

• Democratic enthusiasm is ticking upward ahead of what many expect to be a blue wave.

• Cornyn is already going negative, blasting Crockett as “radical, theatrical, and ineffective,” a preview of the sexist playbook Texas Republicans will absolutely run.

But let’s be real: radical and theatrical are the barriers to entry in politics in the age of Trump. And voters are used to showmanship. They want fighters.

Is Crockett too progressive for Texas?

Crockett is being framed as “too left,” but her main primary opponent James Talarico is also progressive. The difference?

Crockett is famous. And a famous progressive woman gets labeled “radical” long before a lesser-known state rep cum pastor who follows OnlyFans stars on Instagram does.

Crockett’s unfavorables sit at –7 statewide — not great, but not disqualifying. Talarico’s is +22 but her name recognition dwarfs his. That matters in a race where Democrats usually spend the first $10 million explaining who their candidate even is.

She also represents the most reliable slice of the Democratic base: Black women. In a primary, that could be decisive. In a general, that could drive turnout.

But can she talk affordability — the issue that will decide 2026?

We’re in the “affordability election.” Texans, even Republicans, are angry about prices. Crockett is a viral communicator, a battle-tested performer in hearings, and someone who knows how to turn a moment into a message.

But Konst cautioned: talking tough to Marjorie Taylor Greene is not the same as talking to a voter in San Antonio about rent or groceries. Crockett will have to prove she can communicate pain, not just punchlines.

Talarico, a pastor, may have the advantage there. But Crockett has the attention. And in the influencer era of politics, attention is currency.

So does she put the seat at risk?

Earlier today, a Republican consultant in Texas said if Crockett is the nominee Texas is off the table for Democrats, but added:

“I do still worry about Paxton winning the primary. Traditional wisdom would say Paxton v Crockett is still a slam dunk for Paxton - just because he’s an R. But I worry his baggage is so bad, it could still be close.”

Konst didn’t buy it for a second.

What she sees is a Republican Party trapped between a damaged incumbent (Cornyn), a scandal machine (Paxton), and Trump, whose coalition is shrinking in the state.

She believes the race is winnable, for any Democrat, Crockett included.

In fact, she argued that Crockett’s fire could be an asset in a state where Democrats need a fighter who won’t back down from culture-war attacks or immigration fear mongering.

Democrats need four seats to take the Senate. For once, Texas may be legitimately in the mix. But the national party’s pattern is painfully predictable: spend big on TV, ignore ground game until the end, and hope charisma will save them.

Crockett and Talarico will both raise huge grassroots money. National committees will jump in. But the long-term problem remains: Democrats treat Texas like a lottery ticket instead of a state that needs slow, patient, grinding investment.

As Konst put it: “If Democrats had spent the last 30 years building the infrastructure instead of handing money to consultants, Texas wouldn’t be a white whale.”

So in the meantime, Crockett may be loud. She may be polarizing. But she is not boring — and boring candidates lose in Texas. See: Allred.

If Democrats want to finally take their white whale, they need a fighter.
And they need to stop apologizing for candidates who don’t fit the mold.

Texas is ready for a shakeup. The question is whether the Democratic Party is.