Democrats Are Watching Texas—And Waiting on Trump

A preacher-moderate vs. a MAGA lightning rod: Democrats see a narrow path to victory in Texas if the Republican fight gets messy enough.

Welcome back to The Red Letter.

Democrats are holding their breath, hoping Donald Trump endorses the controversial MAGA candidate Ken Paxton—believing it could finally give them a shot at winning statewide in Texas. Stay tuned.

The latest primary shake-up is already reshaping the Democratic conversation. James Talarico, a Christian preacher-turned-state-representative, pulled off a surprising victory over Jasmine Crockett, despite Crockett earning a high-profile endorsement from Kamala Harris. Talarico didn’t run as a resistance fighter or a partisan brawler. Instead, he leaned into unity—talking about faith, freedom, and patriotism in a way that fits the Texas mold. Some Democrats worried Crockett was too far to the left for statewide appeal, while Talarico spent months laying groundwork early, pitching himself as a centrist who could reach voters outside the party’s base.

Now the real question is whether the general election could become a perfect storm. Many Democrats privately believe a matchup between Talarico and Paxton may be their safest path: a preacher-moderate versus a polarizing MAGA figure. The dynamic could force Republicans to defend territory they normally take for granted. But everything hinges on Trump. If he jumps in—especially on Paxton’s side—it could galvanize the GOP base. If he stays out, the race could fracture Republicans who are already uneasy about figures like John Cornyn.

As my very candid guest, Democratic strategist Alex Hoffman explained it, for Democrats, the dream scenario is simple: a divided GOP, a candidate who surprises voters, and Republicans forced to spend money defending Texas. The question now is whether that moment is actually within reach—or whether Texas remains the party’s long-chased white whale.

Thank you J Dziak, Grace Lovelace, Reda Rountree (she/her), It’s Time, Stuart Cohen, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.